导弹遥测故障的GM-Verhulst-SCGM预测算法

遥测故障预测是保障导弹遥测系统可靠性的基础。根据导弹遥测故障的历史数据,结合GM(1,1)模型、Verhucst模型和SCGM(1,1)c模型构建了导弹遥测故障的GM-Verhulst-SCGM组合灰色预测模型,按照预测有效度算法取得组合预测模型的权重系数。选用导弹遥测故障的训练组实际值作为原始数据,分别利用各预测模型估算对比组导弹遥测故障数据。预测结果表明,相比单一预测模型,组合灰色预测模型具备更高的故障预测精度。在验证组合灰色预测模型可行性的基础上,进一步估算了同一型号导弹未来时序的遥测故障数据,为相关部门及时改善导弹遥测技术及避免导弹故障提供理论及方法借鉴。     

冲击波和高速破片联合作用下固支方板毁伤效应数值模拟

为探讨固支方形钢板结构在空爆冲击波和高速破片联合作用下的动态响应过程及变形破坏模式,利用有限元分析软件ANSYS/LS-DYNA,开展了空爆冲击波和高速破片对固支方板的联合作用数值模拟计算,阐述了固支方板在联合载荷作用下动态响应过程的2个阶段,以及在不同爆距下的变形破坏模式和特点。结果表明,随着爆距增加,在破片密集作用区内,钢板的破坏模式存在从集团冲塞破口到部分穿孔边界撕裂联通,再到无穿孔边界撕裂现象的转换。     

Analysis of down times of jib cranes—A stochastic approach

In this paper a case study dealing with the maintenance problem of jib cranes is presented. A jib crane is viewed as a complex system whose performance is observed as a single realization over period of time. After pointing out limitations of existing stochastic models to analyze the observed realization a new family of bivariate stochastic processes is introduced. The data of jib crane is analyzed using new model and cross‐validated using part of the data set. It is noted that the new family of stochastic processes is useful to analyze bivariate data where one of the variables is finitely valued and the other is nonnegative and continuous. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 231–243, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10006     

四参数寿命分布S(α,β,λ,μ)

本文提出一个具有密度函数 (α>0,β≠0,λ>0,μ≥0)的四参数寿命分布S(α,β,λ,μ),然后证明了它的一些基本性质,据形状参数对(α,β)的不同取值,找出了失效率λ(t)关于时间t的五种变化规律:不变;递减;递增;先增后减;先减后增,并显示出不变失效率是其余四种失效率当(α,β)→(1,1)时的极限。     

以可用度为目标的功能检测模型

依据产品潜在故障的概念,将产品划分为“正常”、“潜在故障”和“功能故障”三种状态,并将产品从“新的”发展到“潜在故障”时间间隔和从“潜在故障”发展到“功能故障”时间间隔分别作为随机变量进行处理,利用可靠性数学的方法,建立了以可用度为目标的功能检测模型,包括基本模型和实际应用中变化时的模型,举例给出了模型输出结果的特征和敏感性。     

舰用燃气轮机起动失效分析

以舰用燃气轮机为对象,在简述燃气轮机起动过程的基础上,分析其起动失效的各种原因,提出解决的方法,为燃气轮机的操作及维护提供参考．     

建立不工作失效率理论预测模型的具体方法

本文介绍了建立不工作失效率理论预测模型的具体方法和途径,提出检验数据是否可用的五条标准,并讨论了模型建立过程中应注意的几个特殊因素。     

空间飞网地面碰撞试验与仿真

设计了空间飞网地面碰撞试验系统,并将碰撞试验结果与有限元仿真结果进行比较分析,对碰撞过程中的碰撞力和绳段内力进行分析。研究表明:试验结果与仿真结果吻合较好,这验证了仿真模型的有效性;飞网碰撞目标后产生的约束张力有利于收拢包裹目标;飞网的柔性特征可有效缓解碰撞效应,但碰撞区域绳段易产生断裂破坏。     

就业问题对边防部队思想政治工作的影响

军人就业问题对边防部队思想政治工作有很大的影响 ,必须努力创造良好的军人就业条件 ,打牢部队“打得赢 ,不变质”思想政治工作的基础。     

On the behavior and shape of mixture failure rates from a family of IFR Weibull distributions

Populations of many types of component are heterogeneous and often consist of a small number of different subpopulations. This is called a mixture and it arises in a number of situations. For example, a majority of products in industrial populations are mixtures of defective items with shorter lifetimes and standard items with longer lifetimes. It is a well‐known result that distributions with decreasing failure rates are closed under mixture. However, mixtures of distributions with increasing failure rates are not easily classifiable. If the subpopulations involved in the mixture have increasing failure rates, there might be some upward movement in the mixture and later a general downward pull towards the strongest component. Little work has been done in describing the shape of mixture failure rates when all subpopulations do not have decreasing failure rate. In this paper, we present general results that describe the shape and behavior of a failure rate of a mixture obtained from two Weibull subpopulations with strictly increasing failure rates. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004